Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 14.481075 16.561736 18.804436 21.397607 24.309379 27.473845 31.169157
2025-02-23 11.221198 13.996630 17.222101 21.231881 26.066156 31.688651 38.704194
2025-03-02 9.746767 12.851296 16.635822 21.559272 27.762242 35.282078 45.048760
2025-03-09 8.482955 11.760171 15.930463 21.579739 28.979021 38.280420 50.788478
2025-03-16 7.431215 10.769706 15.181635 21.373197 29.760267 40.637305 55.705128
2025-03-23 6.712727 10.127628 14.797006 21.560481 31.000442 43.584717 61.478044
2025-03-30 6.273632 9.814434 14.806309 22.243749 32.903123 47.461748 68.640682
2025-04-06 5.641382 9.148480 14.244547 22.050551 33.531450 49.585811 73.462134
2025-04-13 4.859416 8.174725 13.142242 20.967183 32.778742 49.688376 75.394557
2025-04-20 4.568770 7.929776 13.098688 21.435437 34.296996 53.075077 82.147590
2025-04-27 4.294571 7.681752 13.022865 21.833927 35.712034 56.354588 88.868700
2025-05-04 3.938597 7.263717 12.641321 21.716379 36.310341 58.424106 93.856725
2025-05-11 3.573300 6.803152 12.165595 21.429732 36.649099 60.152258 98.473609
2025-05-18 3.313365 6.501519 11.927586 21.510496 37.570992 62.815370 104.647466
2025-05-25 3.109605 6.278850 11.800599 21.756768 38.757763 65.924747 111.625528
2025-06-01 2.892579 6.010433 11.571135 21.806174 39.609632 68.524998 117.891542
2025-06-08 2.655758 5.681146 11.205986 21.588014 39.985055 70.353244 122.968902
2025-06-15 2.500266 5.493867 11.080705 21.780293 41.063107 73.365943 130.084388
2025-06-22 2.424026 5.456538 11.227452 22.468688 43.034980 77.941804 139.960262
2025-06-29 2.240344 5.183029 10.907782 22.274113 43.423364 79.848685 145.422442
2025-07-06 1.967114 4.695477 10.138103 21.180685 42.122792 78.789630 145.779370
2025-07-13 1.893978 4.628930 10.188659 21.653280 43.707282 82.796490 154.998107
2025-07-20 1.817727 4.548274 10.204054 22.055406 45.175426 86.650363 164.086062